ANNUAL REPORT 2023 43
Describe the resilience of the organisation’s strategy,
taking into consideration different climate-related
scenarios, including a °C or lower scenario:
Each risk type with Moderate-Higher First Stage Ratings
have been considered under two future scenarios.
The future scenarios are the IPCC’s Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 IPCC RCP8.5. The RCP2.6
scenario describes a scenario where global temperature
increases remain below 2°C as a result of sharp decreases in
emissions, whilst the RCP8.5 scenario describes a scenario
commensurate with much higher emissions and subsequent
temperature increases (around 4°C of warming). These
scenarios have been included in analysis on the basis that
they represent a low-emissions future scenario as well as
a high-emissions future scenario.
Policy and Legal
The Company’s current, key regulatory risk is associated
with the MEES. MEES impacts the Company’s portfolio
of assets by requiring that each asset achieves minimum
EPC ratings in order to be leased. It is acknowledged that
within the RCP2.6 scenario, other policy and legal changes
may be introduced in addition to, or in-place of the current
MEES regulation. Therefore, this risk is intended to
represent a broader suite of future climate Policy and Legal
interventions. Current MEES readiness and EPC ratings
serve as only one indicator for how vulnerable the Company
is to the broader risk of climate-related Policy and Legal
changes. Other vulnerability indicators include tenant lease
term. The likelihood rating is based on the proxy of global
carbon price data, on the rationale that in future scenarios
with higher carbon prices, there is an increased likelihood
of policies, such as MEES, that discourage emissions. In the
RCP2.6 scenario, carbon prices increase more rapidly in the
short-term than under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further details
of this approach have been included in Appendix A.
Currently, the MEES regulation sees compliance as
a landlord responsibility, is applied to all commercial leases
(subject to some exemptions) and dictates that a property
with an EPC lower than an ‘E’ cannot be let to new tenants
or renewed with existing tenants. Revisions to the legislation
are currently under consultation, but it is widely anticipated
that landlords, including the Company, will be required to
ensure their properties are rated at C or better by 2028 and
B or better by 2030 to continue to lease the properties to
tenants. Although, as aforementioned, these regulations are
subject to exclusions.
The Company’s leased supermarket assets in England
currently achieve an average rating of C, with 8 of 50 (16%)
rated at D or worse. The Company has undertaken an
exercise to understand the capital expenditure required
to bring the portfolio up to a lettable standard, should
the legislation progress as is anticipated (i.e. B by 2030).
Based on the Investment Adviser’s initial analysis of the
upgrade costs, these are not expected to be material for the
Company. However, the Company is actively engaging with
tenants to improve asset energy efficiency, where possible,
since an asset with a lower rating could invite lower demand
and rental income relative to an asset with a comparatively
higher rating. This is likely to be of greater concern to the
Company over the medium term when the majority of its
leases will be due for renewal. While the landlord is not
able to make change without consent from the tenants, the
landlord may register an exemption should the tenant not
permit access and alterations to facilitate improvement.
As a result of this analysis, the Company will be evaluating
the capital refurbishment plans on those sites with lower
EPC ratings and ensuring that robust plans are in place
to comply with, if not exceed, future MEES regulations.
The financial impact of this risk will be assessed in
future analysis.
Extreme Heat
Heat waves have increasingly impacted businesses in the
UK and across Europe, with average impacts estimated
as high as 0.5% of GDP in the last decade (www.nature.
com/articles/). The heat wave in July 2022 saw UK
temperatures rise above 40°C in some areas, impacting
grocery store refrigeration capability, energy supply,
supply chains and operations. Such events impact store
profitability as they lead to increased energy consumption
and associated costs to facilitate greater levels of cooling.
Other impacts include stock loss and the cost of newer,
more efficient refrigeration technology. If this were to
disproportionately impact the Company’s stores this could
reduce their attractiveness to the operators, leading to
impacts on rental income.
The results of the scenario analysis show that heat waves
are generally a low risk for the Company’s portfolio in the
RCP2.6 scenario, with temperatures rising above 35°C fewer
than one day per year on the short-, medium-, and long-term
horizon. In the RCP8.5 scenario, this risk increases but
remains low compared to global risk levels, with the number
of days with temperatures of 35°C or greater increasing
to over three days per year on average. Higher risk sites
were mainly located in the South West, with the remaining
located in the Midlands and the South East of England.
Informed by this analysis, the Company will engage
with tenants of higher risk sites through site visits and
engagement to better understand the operational impacts
as a result of extreme heat, if and how it has affected asset
operations at these locations in the past, and the extent to
which it may influence a tenant’s decision to renew its lease.
Tenants are continuing to advance their own refrigeration
and supply chain technology alongside the changing
environment, with refrigeration upgrades at stores where
the equipment is aged, reducing any stock loss associated
with inadequate refrigeration.
Flooding
While there have been no instances of flooding across
the Company’s portfolio during its period of ownership,
flooding has in some locations impacted other supermarket
properties across the UK. This impact is expected to
increase over time due to climate change (see WWF Water
Risk Filter). Scenario analysis results for the Company’s
portfolio show flood risk to be moderate on the short
and medium-term time horizons in the RCP8.5 scenario.
This risk level is reflective of the higher risk level that the